Business cycle dating

London School of Economics. More about this item Keywords business cycles ; turning points ; dating algorithm ; Stata ; All these keywords. Statistics Access and download statistics Corrections All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions.

National Activity Index: uses a weighted average of over 80 economic indicators to identity business cycle trends. Business Cycle Dating: uses updated or revised information to determine phases of the business cycle. Business Cycle Dating: identifies recessions with a considerable lag making it less useful for designing policy. Neither Business Cycle Dating Committee nor the National Activity Index: compiles the financial statements of publicly traded companies. Business , The Business Cycle Dating Committee and the National Activity Index are two methods used to monitor the phases of the business cycle and determine when a recession occurs. Decide which method each of the six items describes and place it in the correct category.

This paper evaluates the ability of formal rules to establish U. We consider two approaches, a nonparametric algorithm and a parametric Markov-switching dynamic-factor model. In order to accurately assess the real-time performance of these rules, we construct a new unrevised "real-time" data set of employment, industrial production, manufacturing and trade sales, and personal income. We then apply the rules to this data set to simulate the accuracy and timeliness with which they would have identified the NBER business cycle chronology had they been used in real time for the past 30 years.

The business cycle , also known as the economic cycle or trade cycle , are the fluctuations of gross domestic product GDP around its long-term growth trend. These fluctuations typically involve shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid economic growth expansions or booms and periods of relative stagnation or decline contractions or recessions. Business cycles are usually measured by considering the growth rate of real gross domestic product.